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How to Sports Bet 3: Implied Probability, Implied Odds, and Expected Value

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Knowing how to convert betting odds into implied probabilities is fundamental for betting as it helps you assess the potential value on a particular market. Once converted, if the implied probability is less than your assessment, then it represents betting value.

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The most common odds formats are decimal, American and fractional. The formulas below explain how to convert odds to implied probabilities. For the examples below we will use Smarkets odds for the Australian Open final between Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic Player.

To calculate the implied probability from decimal odds the equation is 1 decimal odds implied probability. So to find out the probability of a Murray win would be 1. However, a negative EV doesn’t mean you’re going to lose money. Unlike a coin toss, betting odds are subjective, and therefore if you accurately predict an outcome compared to the bookmaker or another user on the exchange, you’re likely to make a profit.

If you calculate your own probability for an outcome that differs from the implied probability of the odds, you can identify a positive EV. Using the same game between Arsenal and Manchester United as our example. The odds give United a chance of winning. You can use odds to calculate the implied probability of a certain outcome in a sporting event. Understanding how to read odds is a crucial step to becoming a successful sports bettor. From determining how much money you want to wager to figuring out which bets offer the most value, it all starts with a solid understanding of the odds.

What Are American, Decimal, Fractional Odds? Odds are displayed in either American, Decimal, or Fractional formats, and serve two purposes They signal the implied probability of the outcome they are attached to.

They indicate how much money you could win betting. When it comes to gambling, you won’t be able to find two more essential concepts than odds and probability. They are what makes the entire thing work. Odds are used to calculate both the payout a gambler can expect to receive from a winning wager and the implied odds of an outcome happening.

Probability is just the likelihood that a given result will occur. Beyond governing how the entire world of sports betting works, odds play a vital role in helping a sports bettor decide if a bet is worth placing or not. All odds carry with them an implied probability, which we then compare to the real probability to determine whether a wager possesses positive value or not.

A rule to live by in the gambling world is only to place bets with positive value. How do implied odds affect your game? The great thing about implied odds is that they have a knock on effect against your pot odds. If you anticipate you will win more money from your opponent on later rounds of betting, you can afford to make calls when your opponent is not giving you the correct pot odds to call.

For example, if you have the nut straight draw the odds that you will complete the draw on the next card are roughly 5 to 1. If your opponent bets 25 making the pot, they are giving you 4 to 1 odds to call. Implied odds are useful for deciding whether to call a bet after you have calculated the pot odds.

If you do not have the correct odds to call a bet and make your draw, then a call is justifiable if you have good implied odds. Calculating implied odds properly will help you do that. The tricky part about implied odds is you can never know exactly how the betting will go on the river.

You could make your draw and then go for a sneaky check-raise and have it go check-check. Or you can make your draw and then make a large bet hoping to get paid off and have your villain fold. Further Reading 10 Essential Hold'em Moves The Check-Raise. How to Estimate Implied Odds in Poker. To more accurately estimate your implied odds there are many things you should take into consideration Who is my opponent?

Is she a multi-tabling TAG tight-aggressiv.

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To calculate the probability of winning relative to the betting odds Probability of Winning Implied ProbabilityTotal. So, we h Let’s run through an example by reading ice hockey odds[1] The first step is to calculate the implied probability for each team Implied Probability RiskReturn.

This calculation shows the Blackhawks have an implied probability of. Betting odds allow you to calculate how much money you will win if you make a bet. Let’s use the same examples as before, with the same replacement of numbers for letters, i.e.

Quite simply, for every value of B that you bet, you will win A, plus the return of your stake.

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91 for every 1 you bet, you will win 9. Using implied probability in betting can also help you compare odds between bookmakers. However, if you consider betting to be just about odds, you’re missing the bigger picture. To really expand your understanding of odds and betting, you must also understand how to calculate probability. With a good understanding of how to calculate probability yourself and how it compares to the odds provided by the bookmaker, you can begin to make more informed decisions when it comes to what you should bet on, when you should bet and how much you should stake for the bets you make.

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Two example hands that show off the use of implied odds including a spot that may surprise you. It’s practically impossible to calculate pot odds precisely because it would require quantifying and weighing countless variables every possible card, action, bet size, etc.

That could occur on future streets. The best you can do is estimate using logic. What you can calculate, however, is the minimum amount you would need to win on future streets in order to justify an otherwise-unprofitable call.

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Implied odds aren’t only used when facing bets with draws. They’re important when you’re the bettor as well. Consider the following situation You raise first-in on the button and get called by the big blind. What are Implied Odds in poker? Implied Odds describe how much you may win on future hands based on the amount you need to make the next bet.

Using Implied Odds is a way of figuring out whether placing the next bet against your opponent is a good idea or not. Calculating an Implied Odd in poker works in the same way as calculating Pot Odds, but Implied Odds take into consideration any estimated future betting.

What does Pot Odds in poker mean? There are two ways to calculate Pot Odds, via the ratio method or via the percentage method. The most popular one to use is the ratio method. For this you first have to calculate the Card Odds, so this means figuring out which card you need and seeing what the likelihood is of it appearing on the next turn.

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The betting odds calculator allows you to input your stake odds in American, Decimal, or Fractional formats to quickly calculate the payout for your bets.

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Legal Sportsbook Offers Reviews. Sports Betting for Beginners Betting Sports Betting Glossary. Mistakes Sports Bettors Should Avoid. How to Win with Action Network Betting Data. How to Manage Your Sports Betting Bankroll. Calculating your implied odds accurately is relatively simple. First, look at the size of the pot after calling.

Second, multiply the size of the pot times This reflects the size of your bet on the next street. If your opponent is aggressive, use instead. If he is passive, use First, calculate your pot odds. Pot odds are the odds that the pot is laying you to call a bet. For example, if there are chips in the pot, and your opponent bets chips, then you'll be putting in 20 of the total value of the pot chips into a chip pot.

You can call if your pot equity is greater than 20. Any time you consider your pot odds in order to make a decision about whether to call or fold, you should also consider your implied odds. Implied odds represent the money that will go into the pot after you catch your draw.

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A betting odd opportunity should be considered valuable if the probability assessed for an outcome is higher than the implied probability estimated by the bookmaker. Read more on the math behind gambling and seeing if the odds are in your favor.

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Many online betting websites offer an option to display the odds in the preferred format. The table below can help convert odds with pen and paper, for those interested in doing the calculations by hand.

Converting odds to their implied probabilities is perhaps the most interesting part. The general rule for the conversion of any type of odds into an implied probability can be expressed as a formula Rule Implied Probability Of An Outcome. Learn how you to get long-term profits. Check how to calculate odds of winning a bet, as real probability is different to bookmakers implied probability. Decimal odds is very popular among bettors in sports betting and this kind of odds is convenient to calculate bets, especially if place accumulator bets. A Usually the 11 fraction is present at the best betting sites as Evens.

By betting on this wagering proposition, the punter can win the same amount of money he she staked. The decimal equivalent of Evens is and the implied probability is 50, causing the odds sometimes to be referred to as fifty-fifty. They think about the likes of how many people will bet on a home win’ and how to optimise the profits without giving too low odds’? As it is with any other business, the competitors’ performance is very important for each of the best betting sites.

There are a lot of odds comparison websites, where you can see that the prices amplitude for the top UK bookmakers is not that big at all.

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The mathematical concept of odds is related to, yet distinct from the concept of probability. In simplest terms, odds are a way of expressing the relationship between the number of favorable outcomes in a given. How to read betting odds Learn how to understand the different ways that odds can be presented across bookmaker sites. Calculating probability with betting odds Find out how likely a result is based on the odds the bookmaker offers. Calculating winnings from betting odds Learn how much you could potentially win on your wager with some simple calculations.

Or, an implied probability of 3. Calculating Winnings from Betting Odds. This is largely covered by our How to Read Odds section but here is a brief overview for anyone who still wants more clarification.

Fractional odds follow this formula how much you will winhow much you stake. A value bet should increase the value of the pot. Learn how to calculate the outs, or cards that haven't been played yet, and whether you should fold. If the pot odds look good then you should play. In fact, if you don’t you’re costing yourself money. But always keep the reverse implied odds in mind. You raised pre-flop and four players call, so you decide to call from the big blind. This online tool calculates parlay multi odds based on the selection odds.

The calculator supports American moneyline, decimal, fractional, Hong Kong, Indonesian, implied probability and Malay odds formats. Learn more about multi betting. To use the calculator select an odds format, input the odds for the individual selections then click Calculate Parlay Odds.

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How to Identify Value in Sports Betting Markets. Tips for Finding Better Value.

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How to Find Value in Betting Odds. Finding value in the odds is the best way to make money from sports betting. In fact, it’s realistically the ONLY way to make money on a consistent and regular basis. If you don’t bet for value, your chances of long term success are close to zero.

Most sports bettors don’t realize this. Instead of betting for value, they tend to bet on whatever outcome they think is most likely to happen. At this point we should explain how to calculate implied probability. This is actually very simple, especially when working with odds in the decimal format. All you need to do is apply the following formula. With moneyline bets, you can instantly calculate how much you’re going to get paid and lock in your bet to get that payout.

American odds are preferred with many US bookmakers, although you can still find decimal point odds, and fractional odds if you want. Examples of American odds, decimal odds, and fractional odds.

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To calculate the exact odds on your horse, just subtract the take from the total pool, then subtract the amount bet on your horse to give you the amount of cash to be paid out. Divide that figure by the amount bet on your horse to get the exact odds. This figure will always be rounded off to the nearest dime usually or nickel, as mentioned previously, before the payoffs are calculated.

Here is a simple example of win odds calculation Since most tracks have a 2 minimum bet, below is a handy chart to look up the payoff for a 2 bet at various odds. Remember, your actual payoff may differ from this chart, as the odds on the tote board are rounded off, so odds on the tote board may actually be or ODDS. Implied Probability is used primarily for sports betting markets and turns traditional odds into a percentage.

The odds of a particular bet correlate to the chance of it happening. However, it also takes into account the house edge and eliminates it to express the true odds of an event occurring.

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For example, a bet with odds of 31 has an implied probability of 25. This percentage means the bet is expected to win one in every four attempts.

Right, so how do we manually calculate implied probability? The calculation for implied probability is as follows Implied Probability Denominator Denominator + Numerator For example, to calculate the implied probability for odds of 21, you would do the following maths 1 1 + 2.

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How to calculate implied probabilities for NBA bets? How to mislead people with NBA statistics? Investigate which team’s most devoted fans have greatest profits and losses? What is a profitable NBA betting strategy? To answer these questions, historical sport odds data was web scrapped from oddsportal website for NBA seasons.

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All data and analysis code is publicly available at github repository.

What odds tell about probabilities? It was already shown that the highest closing odds is good way to measure event’s implied probability. This allows calculating EV for the Rockets win bet where O1 and O2 are Houston Rockets early and closing odds, respectively.

In a long run, these types of bets with same odds should result in ROI. The implied odds are an extension of pot odds that help you decide whether or not you should call a raise. This requires an understanding of your opponent as well as the situation. It’s not necessarily about how much money you could make by calling this raise, but how much money you will be able to extract from your opponent if you hit your draw. First, calculate your pot odds. Pot odds are the odds that the pot is laying you to call a bet.

For example, if there are chips in the pot, and your opponent bets chips, then you’ll be putting in 20 of the total value of the pot chips into a chip pot. You can call if your pot equity is greater than 20. Any time you consider your pot odds in order to make a decision about whether to call or fold, you should also consider your implied odds.

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How to Master Poker Odds Outs, Pot Odds, Implied Odds. Understanding poker odds is essential to playing and winning poker. Calculating pot and hand odds might sound complicated at first, but the more time you dedicate to calculating odds away from the poker table, the better you’ll get doing it when you’re actually playing.

So Why is it that Calculating Both Your Winning Hands and Pot Odds Important? Poker is a mathematical game and in its most basic form every decision you make is based on riskreward. Implied probability is a conversion of betting odds into a percentage.

What implied probability does is, it takes into account the bookmaker's’ margin. Than they anticipate the expected probability of an outcome occurring. Implied Probability Potential Value in a Betting Market.

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The final product of your calculations will reveal that if the implied probability is less than your assessment, then it represents betting value. In this article we will meticulously go through how the calculate the implied probabilities, the different odd formats and most importantly how to apply them to your. How to calculate implied probability.

Betting odds represent the probability of an event to happen and therefore enable you to work out how much money you will win if your bet wins. As an example, with odds of +, for every 1 you bet, you will win 4. There is a 20 chance of this happening. Understanding betting odds is easy with my simple Betting Odds Explained guide. You'll learn what betting odds are and how they work. Betting odds tell us how much we stand to win if our bet is successful. They can be displayed as fractions or decimals.

Traditionally, bookmakers display their odds as fractions, such as 91 on England to win the World Cup. Fractional odds tell us how much we stand to win in relation to our stake. We can use betting odds to calculate the implied probability of an outcome occurring. To calculate probability from fractional odds, we simply divide the number on the right side of the fraction by the sum of both numbers.

So, if the odds are 91 9 + 1 10.

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Working out the average betting odds in football betting using the harmonic mean, including formulas and examples. As the reciprocals of betting odds are the implied probabilities of the events, one can calculate the harmonic mean as a reciprocal of the average probability of the respective bets The above equations rearranged facilitates the harmonic mean calculation by dividing n the number of matches by the sum of the reciprocals of the odds Or alternatively dividing n the number of matches by the sum of their individual probabilities The Result Harmonic Mean is the Accurate Average of the Betting Odds.

Excel users employ the following formula HARMEANnumber1,number2, learn to think like a.

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My question Given this dollar amount, how can I calculate the implied probability that this event i.e. Horses 5 and 4 win will occur? If it were a "fair bet", that is,neither you nor the track has any advantage, the implied chance would be 21 In real racing, about 15 to 20 per cent of the monies bet is not paid back. So if you add all the implied chances for a given type of bet E.g. All daily-double combinations you do not get 1, but about to If the tote says for a given bet, it means that up to that point in time, of the money to be paid back not of all the money bet is on that given bet.

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Value bets tool display bets that have odds with implied probability value higher than the real probability of it happening. Those bets are calculated based on a comparison between bookmaker's market odds with total average odds. Oddspedia overvalue algorithm takes into account various factors and collects data simultaneously from at least several bookmakers. Betting with value included in the bets will statistically lead to long-term profits.

The "Odds" column features best betting odds available. The "Probability" column shows the statistical likelihood to win the be.

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Calculating the Implied Probability of betting odds is easy. Simply enter the odds into the Implied Probability Calculator on this page and then hit the Convert button. The Implied Probability of the odds will then be displayed in the Probability box.

Next, you’ll need to determine whether there is value in the bet you are thinking of placing. To do this, simply compare the Implied Probability with the chances you give that bet of winning.

For example If you give Conor McGregor a 50 chance of beating George St-Pierre, but the Implied Probability in the odds is 30, then your bet has valu.

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Learn how to convert all other odds types into decimal format and vice versa. This includes converting decimal odds into an implied probability. Each Way Bets Explained How To Calculate EW Winnings. Each Way bets enable punters to cover more places in a horse race, thereby reducing their risk and avoiding disappointment if a selection doesn’t win. EW betting is popular in unpredictable races such as the Grand National where the chance of selecting the outright winner is relatively low.

Posted in All, Understanding Odds.

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Ultimate guide on how football betting odds work. Calculate your profits on decimal, fractional other odds, convert odds types and learn to read odds. Like the name implies, these odds are mainly used by Indonesian punters, even though betting is prohibited in the South-East Asian country.

They are split into positive negative odds and are considered a mixture of American and Hong Kong odds. Positive odds represent an underdog and are similar to HK odds.

If you place a wager on odds, you will receive a net profit of Negative odds are in most cases offered on favorites and basically work like American ones. This means that to earn a profit of on odds, you have to place a bet.

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If you don’t know how to calculate implied probabilities from betting odds you are hurting your chance of making a profit. Implied probabilities are useful whether you are betting on single games, futures, props or live wagering. To determine if one of these wager types [ ] Implied Probability Calculator MMA Betting Tips. The Bookie must work out the probability that he believes a bet will win.

He then sets the odds based on this probability. It is beneficial for us to calculate what probability a Bookie believes a bet will win so that we can determine whether there is value in a bet. Calculating the Implied Probability of the odds enables us to do this.

How to calculate implied probability in betting.

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Odds are simply a reflection of the implied chance, or likelihood, of the outcome of an event. Let’s look at tennis, where Andy Murray is playing an early round match against a relatively unknown player. The bookmakers decide that Andy has an 80 chance of winning the match, therefore giving his opponent a 20 chance.

By using the decimal odds you can calculate the likelihood of the outcome of an event actually happening. For example is calculated as or 16 probability. Is calculated as or 50 probability. How to use decimal odds to make money. Matched betting is a clever way to turn bookmakers’ free bets and promotions into real money. It involves odds and placing bets, but it’s not gambling.

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Essentially, implied probability is the odds shown as a percentage. In other words, it shows you what chance the bookmaker is giving to a particular outcome occurring. The easiest way to explain implied probability is the classic example of the coin toss. In theory, there is a 50 chance of the coin landing on heads and a 50 chance of it landing on tails. So, if you were to place a 10 bet on the coin landing on heads, you have a 50 chance of being successful. Let’s say you’re betting on the Match Result of a football match.

We recommend you study exactly what it means before you take on the bookmakers. How To Use The Odds Converter? So, looking to convert the odds you’ve been given.

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So how do you calculate your outs in this case? Out of the eight cards that could give you the straight, three are no good any two that would make the callers’ flush and the overcard that might give the raiser the set. That leaves you with five outs in total. In fact, if you don’t you’re costing yourself money. But always keep the reverse implied odds in mind. You raised pre-flop and four players call, so you decide to call from the big blind.

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Odds Shark’s sports betting odds calculator is a great tool for your handicapping arsenal. Find out what you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered. With our bet calculator you can know exactly what you’d win before making your picks. How to Use an Odds Calculator. No matter the type of bet you’re making, our calculator has you covered. First, you’ll need to enter your odds. The calculator offers four options American, Decimal, Fractional 15 and Implied.

The majority of betting sites offer each odds type, so it’s up to you to decide which you like best. Here at Odds Shark, we use the American style. Next, enter the budgeted amount you want to bet with and our calculator will determine how much money you’ll win, an.

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Fixed-odds betting is a form of wagering against odds offered by a bookmaker or an individual or on a bet exchange. In Australia, the practice is usually known as "SP betting". It is customary with fixed-odds gambling to know the odds at the time of the placement of the wager the "live price", but the category also includes wagers whose price is determined only when the race or game starts the "starting prices".

It is ideal for bookmakers to pricemark up a book such that the net outcome will.

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Our free sports betting odds calculator converter will allow you to convert odds to different formats instantly as well as calculate your potential winnings. This tool converts between US odds, Decimal odds, Fractional odds, and Implied Probability. Enter any one of these values, and the rest of the formats' values will be calculated and displayed automatically. Decimal Odds In Sports Betting. Decimal odds are the easiest to calculate compared to other odds types.

Bettors just need to take their stake x odds to equal their payout amount. For instance, if you bet at decimal odds, you’d get if your bet won, your stake back, plus your profit of.

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Implied odds are essentially an extension of pot odds used in poker math when assessing how valuable a drawing hand is. While pot odds are the ratio between the size of the bet and the size of the pot, implied odds include a prediction of what will happen on future streets of the hand in terms of how much you can win on average. Misused, implied odds can cripple your win rate due to calling too many bets and raises on the preflop without good enough prospects or good starting hands.

That said, because the nature of this concept includes some guesswork, it is, in a practical sense, impossible t.

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Welcome to our Odds Calculator page. Here you can calculate your potential winnings before striking a bet with one of our recommended bookmakers. Simply add in the odds for each betting selection along with your nominated stake.

You can then click on the Calculate button and it will show you how much you can potentially win with your bet. You can add as many selections as you like, with many readers using the Odds Calculator to work out how much a football accumulator would pay if they predict the correct winning teams. Please note that the more teams you add to your accumulator, the riskier.

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Contribute to marcoblumeapeironacademy.comter development by creating an account on GitHub. Example Calculate the implied probability of a apeironacademy.com containing Home and Away odds. Df apeironacademy.comdf,input "dec",output "prob". Home Away [1,] [2,] [3,] It is also possible to submit vectors as input to calculate the implied Probability.

Example Calculate the implied probablity of home and away lines with dplyr.

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How To Find Value Bets What Is Value Bets Finder? How Much Stake Do You Need To Bet How Much Money Can You Make? But their Implied Probabilities are not necessarily close to the true probability but on the contrary they are often remote, because they need to inject the margin over-round balance the book.

The Kelly Criterion formula is bp q b f b the Decimal odds -1 p the probability of success q the probability of failure i.e. 1-p f the stake amount Let me use a coin toss again as an example of Kelly Criterion Assuming you are betting on a coin to land on heads at But, if the coin is biased and has a 52 chance of ending up on heads.

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UNDERSTANDING how odds work is fundamental to being successful at betting on football, horse racing or any sport. Seasoned punters will find calculating odds to be second nature but for beginners the prospect of getting to grips with what odds mean and in particular grappling with fractional odds can be a daunting one.

Even if you're an experienced punter this Masterclass on understanding odds offers you the chance to refresh your thinking on identifying value based on the implied probability of odds. This means that the odds imply there is a 40 chance of that particular outcome happening.

If you think there is a greater than 40 chance of the outcome happening then you have found yourself a value bet.

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Download Sports Betting Odds Calculator and enjoy it on your iPhone, iPad, and iPod touch. You can also input a bet and see your potential profit. The compare feature compares up to 6 different odds to see which have the best potential return. The best return is highlighted in green, the worst in red. Each of these may be any of the 6 types of odds. The combine features takes up to 6 odds of any of the formats and combines them, either inclusively Odds of at least one wager being successful or conjunctively Odds of every wager being successful.

This fast and easy betting tool can help you win more money! When you need to calculate how much you would win when betting a certain amount this app is for you. Perfect for all money line Vegas bets.

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Pot Odds, Drawing Odds and Implied Odds. In no-limit poker implied odds are hugely important, while in fixed-limit games the significance of implied odds is, well, limited. For those of you not familiar with the term, a quick primer on "pot odds," "drawing odds" and "implied odds" is necessary. "Pot odds" refers to the amount of money you may win when you call a bet compared to the cost of calling that bet.

Finally, "implied odds" are the pot odds as calculated above but also adding the money you might win on future betting rounds, too. Say you had that flush draw and faced having to call a bet on the turn.

Knowing when and how to press your advantages extracting extra bets. Being selective with postflop play.